《Food Policy》| Yu et al：特种作物保险市场的保费率与选择：来自巨灾险的证据

摘要：巨灾险是一种全补贴保险，可在单产低于历史平均水平的50％时提供赔偿，已成为美国特种作物种植者中使用最广泛的作物保险产品。各种水果，蔬菜，坚果和园艺作物的灾难性保险承保方式表明，补贴作物保险的“投资”预期收益会影响保险的使用。我们的简单模型表明，较大的承保范围会带来较小的净收益，这意味着更大的灾难性和免费承保范围。我们的计量经济学估算使用了自巨灾险以来的全部23年中，对20种主要农作物和1000多个县的保险种植面积，负债，赔偿和溢价的观察结果。我们发现，非灾难性保险的赔款与溢价比率降低10％，这意味着种植者的预期收益降低4％，导致灾难性保险的份额增加近1％。面板分位数回归表明，该结果对分布假设具有稳健性。使用子样本和替代规范进行的估计进一步证实了我们结果的稳健性。概念和实证结果表明，农场在选择能够提供更大预期收益的作物保险产品方面进行了自我选择。我们的经验结果还表明，巨灾险产生了更大的承保收益，这影响了私人保险公司的再保险基金分配。

关键词：作物保险；巨灾险；逆向选择; 特种作物

Abstract: Catastrophic coverage, fully-subsidized insurance that provides indemnities when yields fall below 50% of historical averages, has been the most widely used crop insurance product among specialty crop growers in the United States. Patterns in catastrophic coverage across a variety of fruit, vegetable, tree nut and horticultural crops and indicate that expected returns to “investing” in subsidized crop insurance affect the use of insurance. Our simple model shows that smaller net returns from higher coverages, imply more catastrophic and free coverage participations. Our econometric estimation uses observations of insured acreage, liabilities, indemnities, and premiums across 20 major crops and more than one thousand counties, over all the 23 years since catastrophic coverage became available. We find that a 10% reduction in the ratio of the indemnities to the premiums of non-catastrophic coverages, which implies a 4% reduction in expected returns to growers, leads to larger catastrophic coverage shares by almost one percent. Panel quantile regressions show that the result is robust to distributional assumptions. Estimation using subsamples and alternative specifications further confirm the robustness of our results. The conceptual and empirical results demonstrate the degree to which farms self-select into crop insurance products that provide greater expected payouts. Our empirical results also indicate that catastrophic coverage generates greater underwriting gains, which affects the reinsurance fund allocation of private insurers.

Key words: Crop insurance; Catastrophic coverage; Adverse selection; Specialty crops

《Food Policy》，最新影响因子为4.189，主要发表以下方向文章：

•食品生产，贸易，市场营销和消费
•食品系统的营养和健康方面
•食品需求，权利，安全和援助
•食品安全和质量保证
•食品系统和环境的可持续性

原文链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919221000567

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